True advancement will rely on our acceptance that canadian

1981 Climate Change Predictions Were Eerily Accurate

A paper published in the journal cheap canada goose Science in August 1981 made several Canada Goose online projections regarding future climate change and anthropogenic global Canada Goose Jackets warming based on manmade CO2 emissions.

The paper, written canada canada goose factory sale goose outlet store uk by a team of atmospheric physicists led by the now controversial canada goose outlet reviews James Hansen at NASA’s Institute for Space Studies at Goddard Space Flight Center, was recently rediscovered by researchersGeert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Taking a break from research due to illness, the scientists got a chance to look back through some older, overlooked publications.

Even though the paper was given 10 pages in Science, it covers a lot of advanced topics related to climate indicating the level of knowledge known canada goose outlet black friday about climate science even at that time.

«The concepts and conclusions have not changed all that much,» van Oldenborgh and Haarsma note. «Hansen et al clearly indicate what was well known (all of which still stands today) and what was uncertain.»

Within the paper, several graphs note the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide, both naturally occurring and manmade, and projected a future rise based on the continued goose uk canada goose outlet canada use of fossil fuels by humans. Van Oldenborgh and Haarsma overlaid data gathered by NASA and KNMI in recent years and found that the projections made by Hansen et al. were pretty much spot on.

If anything, the 1981 projections were «optimistic».

Data from the GISS Land Ocean Temperature Index fit rather closely with the 1981 projection (van Oldenborgh and Haarsma)Hansen wrote in the original paper:

«The global temperature rose by 0.2C between the middle 1960’s and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4C in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of canada goose store volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean rend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980’s. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climate zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.»

Now here we are in 2012, looking down the barrel of the global warming gun canada goose outlet online Hansen and team had reported was there 31 years earlier. In fact, we’ve already seen most of the predicted effects take place.

«Drought prone regions» are receiving less rainfall, the Antarctic ice has begun to crack and crumble and bowhead whales are using the Northwest Passage as a polar short cut.

The retreat of Pedersen Glacier in Alaska. Left: summer 1917. Right: summer 2005.

«In light of historical evidence that it takes several decades to complete canada goose coats a major change in fuel use, this makes large climate change almost inevitable,» Hansen et al wrote in anticipation of the difficulties of a global shift away from dependence on carbon dioxide emitting fossil fuels.

«CO2 effects on climate may make full exploitation of coal canada goose outlet uk sale resources undesirable,» the paper concludes. «An appropriate strategy may be to encourage energy conservation and develop alternative energy sources, while using fossil fuels as necessary during the next few decades.»

(Watch a TED talk by James Hansen on «Why I Must Speak Out About Climate Change»)

As the «next few decades» are now, for us, coming to a close, where do we stand canada goose outlet toronto factory on the encouragement of energy conservation and cheap Canada Goose development on canada goose outlet uk alternative energy sources? Sadly the outlook is not as promising as it should be, not given our level of abilities to monitor the intricate complexities of our planet’s climate and to develop new technologies. True advancement will rely on our acceptance that canadian goose jacket a change is in fact necessary a hurdle that is proving to be the most difficult one to clear.

Read van Oldenborgh and Haarsma’s blog post here, and see the full 1981 paper «Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide»here. And for more news on our changing climate, visit NASA’s Global Climate Change site.

Tip of the anthropogenically warmer hat to canada goose factory outlet cheap canada goose The Register.

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This isn about D day. its about the bill and how much of the bill do you accept. Denial is cheap, accepting at least 10% of your calculated share is still cheap, but people will be happier. Multiply this tactic times total countries on Earth and you understand the wish canada goose black friday sale that someone else came along and resolved the overhead costs and issues.

Not to mention the joke that the air we breath was the one thing not taxed yet. But a lot of taxpayers now understand the necesity for those extra taxes they will pay.

Sadly, it would have cost very little to avoid the increased global temperatures and local freaky weather at the time. Now no expenses will suffice, except to set the peak change some century away.

Oh, and Hansen is not controversial. Maybe in the public sphere, but not as a climate scientist which the article well reflects.

It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century,

Around 2009ish I estimated that it was https://www.fabulalitera.de even chances that the rate of signal raise would admit a 3 sigma AGW attribution test when the next IPCC review comes out 2014, making an assumption of the noise and signal variation as normal distributed (many climate factors).